First Day of Month Seasonality - How did the Hot Stocks for April 1, 2022 perform?

How did the Hot Stocks for April 1, 2022 perform?

The free resource of theStockOdds Seasonality Dashboard provides insights for stocks and ETFs well in advance of a particular day or event. This means you have plenty of time to conduct your own research into the symbols that StockOdds showcases. Alternatively, you could simply rely on the statistical metrics that are provided from the Almanac and run with them with your preferred rules.

Odds are from 0 to 100 with the higher the number the more probable the outcome of direction and average performance. Odds above 50 are what we will focus on. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has odds of 62.5 of being up on average +2.52% from the previous day’s close. Block, Inc (SQ) has odds of 80 of being down on average -4.05% from the previous day’s close.

Taking the top 5 long candidates gives you: TSLA, GOLD, HUM, NTES, NEM

Taking the top 5 short candidates and not being concentrated into repetitive industries gives you: SQ, UAL, DRI, RCL, HPQ.

This provides us with two distinct baskets that are diversified in sectors and industries. Our goal is to be able to buy all the stocks in our long basket at the market open on April 1. Likewise, we can short all the stocks in the short basket at the open, and then hold both baskets until the market close, potentially benefiting from the relative performance between long dollars and short dollars in play.

When you type into the fields or move the sliders within the dashboard, you change the displayed stocks and the quantity. From what is displayed in this article, the settings are the default, which is the starting point for every viewer.

Note the bottom of the dashboard, for our universe of 306 symbols… that the bias for the day seems to be leaning towards a down session, as that has happened historically.

Moving to the second page of the Almanac, we see the performance of the First Trading Day for the SPY and IWM is negative.

The first Friday of April is down, Fridays in general are down and the first day of the month of April is historically down also. Noteworthy is that the first day of month, April 1^st this year, occurs on a Friday.

Does history repeat itself? StockOdds subscribers think so. Here are the results from April 1^st highlighted from the close of trading on Thursday as well as from the open of trading on Friday until the close of trading on Friday.

So, we can see that the selections worked over both choices of time frames, whether you held overnight from buying/shorting them on Thursday in preparation for Friday or executing the stocks Friday at the Market Open and not subjecting your account to overnight risk. In the case of open-to-close (OC) trades, we can see the return on capital of +1.513% for the day.

So, while, the Almanac is showcasing historic performance from close to close, the ideas it generates can still be used from the open to close as there should be enough “juice” left in them for that intraday performance.

It is important to note that StockOdds data is statistical and highlights probabilities, not guarantees. There are some events throughout each month that perform better than others and some months of the year have more robust outcomes than other months. Macro influences can certainly impact statistical projections.