The Seasonality of Options Expiration Week - 1st Friday of October 2022
Oct 15, 2022
When looking for stock or option trading ideas, one can take advantage of options expiration-related trades on the first Friday of a given month.
Using the free seasonality trading almanac, one can look up the First Friday of the Month for any month of the year well ahead of time. Taking a look at October 2022 below (pulled before the 1st Friday of October), we'll select only symbols with Odds over 50.
The Seasonality Almanac simplifies statistics into an easily readable format, to make it simple to choose stocks with a positive expectation (Odds over 50 and positive Avg % change), as well as short candidates with a negative expectation.
Below is the OC (Open to Close) Performance of the Longs and Shorts combined in equal capital traded from the Open using OPG orders, to the Close using MOC orders on October 7, 2022. SPY was used to balance short dollars vs. long dollars.
|
Shorts from First Friday of October Seasonality and SPY to Balance Capital |
|||||||||
|
No. |
Ticker |
Beta |
ATR |
Volume |
Capital |
Open |
Close |
P&L |
ROC% |
|
1 |
ADI |
1.15 |
4.36 |
491682 |
-$1,000 |
$151.33 |
$150.97 |
$2.38 |
0.24% |
|
2 |
ALGN |
1.79 |
11.46 |
75141 |
-$1,000 |
$229.16 |
$222.36 |
$29.67 |
2.97% |
|
3 |
CZR |
2.78 |
2.78 |
821169 |
-$1,000 |
$38.54 |
$38.62 |
-$2.08 |
-0.21% |
|
4 |
LULU |
1.24 |
13.12 |
171919 |
-$1,000 |
$308.02 |
$310.48 |
-$7.99 |
-0.80% |
|
5 |
MCHP |
1.57 |
2.36 |
583281 |
-$1,000 |
$67.18 |
$67.12 |
$0.89 |
0.09% |
|
6 |
MRVL |
1.5 |
2.17 |
3296050 |
-$1,000 |
$48.31 |
$47.96 |
$7.24 |
0.72% |
|
7 |
MTCH |
0.91 |
2.37 |
325815 |
-$1,000 |
$50.86 |
$50.53 |
$6.49 |
0.65% |
|
8 |
SPY |
|
8.59 |
24623976 |
-$5,000 |
$375.62 |
$373.20 |
$32.21 |
0.64% |
|
9 |
TXN |
1 |
4.53 |
727024 |
-$1,000 |
$167.78 |
$166.54 |
$7.39 |
0.74% |
|
10 |
ULTA |
1.35 |
11.9 |
140193 |
-$1,000 |
$394.23 |
$392.08 |
$5.45 |
0.55% |
|
11 |
W |
2.93 |
3.39 |
1021443 |
-$1,000 |
$35.64 |
$33.65 |
$55.84 |
5.58% |
|
12 |
WKHS |
2.94 |
0.21 |
1099590 |
-$1,000 |
$2.77 |
$2.65 |
$43.32 |
4.33% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL FOR SHORTS |
$180.83 |
1.13% |
|
Longs from First Friday of October Seasonality |
|||||||||
|
No. |
Ticker |
Beta |
ATR |
Volume |
Capital |
Open |
Close |
P&L |
ROC% |
|
1 |
BMY |
0.37 |
1.63 |
1031269 |
$1,000 |
$70.79 |
$70.24 |
-$7.77 |
-0.78% |
|
2 |
CB |
0.66 |
4.26 |
157390 |
$1,000 |
$190.10 |
$188.82 |
-$6.73 |
-0.67% |
|
3 |
CI |
0.69 |
5.97 |
282065 |
$1,000 |
$292.39 |
$293.08 |
$2.36 |
0.24% |
|
4 |
CNC |
0.57 |
2.35 |
1640868 |
$1,000 |
$80.80 |
$80.24 |
-$6.93 |
-0.69% |
|
5 |
ENPH |
1.47 |
17.65 |
1222347 |
$1,000 |
$260.00 |
$257.45 |
-$9.81 |
-0.98% |
|
6 |
MDT |
0.77 |
2.01 |
480879 |
$1,000 |
$84.75 |
$84.42 |
-$3.89 |
-0.39% |
|
7 |
MU |
1.3 |
2.08 |
5604448 |
$1,000 |
$54.40 |
$54.62 |
$4.04 |
0.40% |
|
8 |
NOW |
0.97 |
16.49 |
289683 |
$1,000 |
$422.12 |
$418.43 |
-$8.74 |
-0.87% |
|
9 |
PANW |
1.15 |
5.4 |
461001 |
$1,000 |
$175.30 |
$174.75 |
-$3.14 |
-0.31% |
|
10 |
PLUG |
1.74 |
1.65 |
7652637 |
$1,000 |
$21.76 |
$21.09 |
-$30.79 |
-3.08% |
|
11 |
QDEL |
0.16 |
2.8 |
29322 |
$1,000 |
$71.51 |
$72.40 |
$12.45 |
1.24% |
|
12 |
SPLK |
1.42 |
4 |
493958 |
$1,000 |
$79.29 |
$79.53 |
$3.03 |
0.30% |
|
13 |
TWLO |
1.5 |
3.98 |
1423836 |
$1,000 |
$76.15 |
$78.03 |
$24.69 |
2.47% |
|
14 |
TWTR |
0.58 |
1.86 |
11387708 |
$1,000 |
$50.98 |
$49.39 |
-$31.19 |
-3.12% |
|
15 |
VRTX |
0.42 |
7.85 |
204260 |
$1,000 |
$300.00 |
$298.63 |
-$4.57 |
-0.46% |
|
16 |
ZTS |
0.76 |
3.72 |
291114 |
$1,000 |
$153.79 |
$152.59 |
-$7.80 |
-0.78% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL FOR LONGS |
-$74.80 |
-0.47% |
The total for all stocks in the basket would therefore be $106.13 or +0.3317% Return on Capital (ROC).
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