Hot Stocks for October 29, 2021 - EXAS, EXPE, TWTR, ETSY Seasonality

UPDATE Nov 1: the actual performance of this trading basket, on a capital-balanced basis, was -0.81% ROC for the day.

Coming up on the Last Trading Day of October, there are many hot stocks projected to move. The StockOdds Seasonality Dashboard provides quick insights for stocks, ETFs, or other securities likely to move in a given time period. In this case, we’ll take a look at a few symbols that typically either have bullish or bearish performance on the last trading day of October.

Seasonality for The Last Trading Day of October 2021

Using the Free Seasonality Almanac, we can generate ideas for stocks to trade in any given month. In this case, we’ll take a look at the Last Trading Day of October, which for 2021 is Oct 29. On the first page of the dashboard, we can easily pick out the bottom and top performing stocks by taking into account both the average % change and Odds data. In this case, we’ll take a look at Exact Sciences Corp., Expedia Group Inc., Twitter Inc., and Etsy Inc. 

For the last trading day of October, historically, EXAS has 87.5% Odds of going up on average by 5.09%, and EXPE has 75% Odds of going up on average by 4.03%. On the bearish side, historically, TWTR has 57.1% Odds of going down on average by -3.18%, and ETSY has -2.82% Odds of going down on average by -2.82%.

These numbers are drawn from the previous 6 years for ETSY, previous 7 years for TWTR, and the previous 8 years for EXAS and EXPE. This can be found by hovering your mouse over the expected performance (green and red) bars, as seen below.

Traders can use this information for context as to the seasonality of TWTR and ETSY which may qualify as shorts or EXAS and EXPE which may be suitable longs. Traders may want to look at additional Signals for each stock individually before entering a trade to “line up the ducks” with complimentary Odds and average performance for the same day, or even for longer and overlapping periods, based on MFI, Connors, Momentum and others.

Additional Signals can be found through the Dashboards Reports or through the WebScreener. As we near the end of the month, traders typically look at RSI and %BB values for confirming Odds and average performance.

Before taking these statistics for granted, it is important to look for factors which may have contributed to past performance. For these symbols (EXAS, EXPE, TWTR, ETSY), quarterly earnings are usually released near the end of October or beginning of November. When it comes to earnings, there can be cases of “Buying the hype, selling the news,” which also contribute to their Odds and average performance on the last trading day of October.

EXAS Seasonality for October 29, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Exact Sciences Corp.’s performance for the entire month of October, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom, we can see the historical performance of SPY is very slightly positive on the last trading day of October, compared to EXAS, which far outperforms the index. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for EXAS. 

Though the monthly performance of Exact Sciences Corp. in October has averaged -4.6%, we can see the positive performance on the last trading day(s) of the month and mid-month seasonality counteracts the monthly performance. This indicates EXAS typically mean-reverts on the last trading day, from poor performance from other days in October. The typical action on these days can help frame intraday or swing trades for EXAS for the month of October.

EXAS’s quarterly earnings is currently estimated to be announced Nov 2, 2021, which traders should keep in mind if considering to enter a trade close to that date.

EXPE Seasonality for October 29, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Expedia Group Inc.’s performance for the entire month of October, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom, we can see the historical performance of EXPE significantly outperforms the SPY. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for EXPE. 

Though the monthly performance of Expedia Group Inc. in October has averaged 3.0%, we can see a significant portion of this performance typically comes from the last 3 trading days of October, as well as the last trading day of October. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for EXPE for the month of October.

EXPE’s quarterly earnings is currently expected to be released on Nov 3, 2021, which traders should keep in mind if considering to enter a trade close to that date.

TWTR Seasonality for October 29, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Twitter Inc.’s performance for the entire month of October, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom timeline, we can see TWTR historically underperforms the SPY on the last trading day of October. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 seasonality signals for TWTR, from bullish to bearish. Since TWTR is a potential short for October, we can refer to these signals to see the least bearish times to trade Twitter Inc stock. 

The monthly performance of Twitter Inc in October has averaged -3.7%, we can see the last 3 trading days has a -3.05% expectation, likely with most of this performance coming from the last trading day. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for TWTR for other days in October.

TWTR’s quarterly earnings is currently estimated to be released on Oct 26, 2021, which traders should keep in mind if considering to enter a trade close to that date.

ETSY Seasonality for October 29, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Etsy Inc.'s performance for the entire month of October, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom, historically we can see ETSY significantly underperforms the SPY. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 seasonality signals for ETSY, from bullish to bearish. Since ETSY is a potential short for October, we can refer to the lower half of this section to see the most bearish seasonality signals. 

Though the monthly performance of Etsy Inc. in October has averaged -11.5%, we can see the last 5 trading days only has a -6.23% expectation, leaving the rest of October for ETSY to lend itself to bearish action. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for ETSY for the month of October.

ETSY’s quarterly earnings is currently estimated to be released on Nov 3, 2021, which traders should keep in mind if considering to enter a trade close to that date.

Closing Thoughts

The Seasonality Almanac Dashboard uses close-to-close (CC) performance, so one looking to take these trades has a few options. One could enter positions on the second-last trading day of October and exit at the close of the last trading day of October or enter at the Open of the last day of October if conditions are favorable. It’s worth considering, with overnight or even intraday trades, even though one has curated a high-probability trade, the market could interfere with its own agenda (that being what is most probable to occur). Most stocks tend to be impacted by larger market moves, so it is an advantage to hedge any trades in some way. Even with this in mind why trade probability-blind, when you can trade hedged, with the Odds!

By taking a quick look at the summary numbers at the bottom of the dashboard (Positive & Negative Values by % Change, Percentage of Symbols outperforming relative to SPY), we can see that 57% of stocks in the dashboard that meet our filter criteria have a positive expectation. In addition to this, we can also see that just over half the stocks are expected to outperform the S&P 500 ETF. This can help set the context for November 1, 2021 as well.

If you’re a trader or investor, then we highly recommend that you take our Seasonality Dashboard course. In this course, not only will you learn more about why seasonality patterns exist and how to better utilize the Seasonal Almanac Dashboard but also have access to exclusive insights from some of the world's leading traders on using probability-based approaches for trading.